The Law of Accelerating Returns

Mary Meeker's Internet Reports < AI Trends

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Good morning Launch Key 🚀 community!

I’m back at elevation this week writing from one of my favorite spots: a screen porch. It was 65 degrees this morning. I hope you are doing your summertime favs too.

But while we’re enjoying a slower pace, the technology race continues to accelerate at an unfathomable rate. You need to at least read about the possibilities.

Let's get into it.

  • Gmail users may wish to read online since some parts may be clipped.

  • Comment below and let me know if we’re on the right track.

Table of Contents

Pull to Eject

In 1999, Vint Cerf, one of the ‘Fathers of the Internet,’ said “…they say a year in the Internet business is like a dog year” – equivalent to seven years in a regular person's life.

The rate of change is the thing that’s hard to grasp.

  • Stone Age to Farming: 100,000 yrs

  • Farming to Steam Power: 12,000 yrs

  • Steam Power to AI: 200 yrs

  • ChatGPT to 100 million users: 2 months

We mindlessly worked along with Moore’s Law doubling every other year. And then AI turns up 1000x per annum. Cerf may have oversold the dog years!

The acceleration has been breathtaking - especially since the turn of the century. In fact technology has advanced 5 times faster than it did in the 1900s.

Charts Paint Thousands of Words

Legendary Investor Mary Meeker has had a ring-side seat since her Morgan Stanley days and the lead manager for the 1995 Netscape IPO. Spoiler alert: I didn’t get any.

Her 1996 “Internet Report” grew into the annual must-read on the state of technology. Over the next 29 years she published similar reports on online advertising, e-commerce, evolution of search, the Internet in China, and the mobile Internet. She was the keynote speaker at a decades worth of Web 2.0 Conferences.

Fortune Magazine named her “One of the 10 Smartest People in Tech.” Meeker was characterized by Andrew Serwer as "absolutely first rate when it comes to spotting big-picture trends before they come into focus. She gathers massive amounts of data and assembles it into voluminous reports that, while sometimes rambling and overambitious, are stuffed with a million jumping-off points.”

Well she’s done it again - this time dropping a 340-page deep dive into the state of Artificial Intelligence.

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence, compute infrastructure, and global connectivity are fundamentally reshaping how work gets done, how capital is deployed, and how leadership is defined – across both companies and countries.

But it’s going to affect every successful small business too.

If you’re planning any business, you should read this. Her charts are eye-opening. Her data insightful. They don’t call her the Queen of the Internet because she’s been wrong.

Trends_Artificial_Intelligence.pdf12.14 MB • PDF File

Key takeaways include:

  • AI is growing faster than the internet

  • China is no longer playing catchup

  • Jobs are changing fast

  • AI-native products are replacing AI features

  • ChatGPT is the fastest growing product ever

Professions centered on intakes of large bodies of structured, historical data and outputting rules-based decisions and judgement, fall squarely in the core competency of generative AI. Table stakes for future business.

Will this scare you? Yes.

Does it change your desire to work for yourself? No.

Take these global insights and apply them locally.

You’re welcome.

Now go launch something 🚀 

Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification

Martin H. Fischer

Old School Wisdom

You don’t have to go back decades to see how right Mary Meeker has been. Here is her 2019 Internet Report as a sample of things you should have invested in … or built on over the past 6 years.

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