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Good morning Launch Key 🚀 community!

I hope you’re still working those New Year Resolutions. While I don’t have literal Resolutions, I am a big fan of writing down ideas. You absolutely get more of what you write about (see Human-generated content).

I do listen to big thinkers as they roll out their predictions each year though. Based on my career, the thinkers I’ve listened to most are technology luminaries like Mary Meeker, Marc Andreessen and the boys from the All-In pod.

This week we check in on some of their 2026 predictions.

Let's get into it.

• Gmail users may wish to read online since some parts may be clipped.

• Comment below and let me know if we’re on the right track.

Table of Contents

• Pull to Eject

  • AI is the obvious prediction

  • All-In Podcast predictions

  • The Takeaway

• Old School Wisdom

• Modern Tools

• Free Knowledge

• Recommendations

• Visual Crapshoot

Pull to Eject

I’m not good at predictions.

But I do believe in reading the economic tea leaves and listening to experts to build my opinions. And I’ve shared those opinions with clients, employees and partners for decades. In fact, here’s 36-year old Rob’s 1999 opinion (Common Sense) as we rolled into the 21st century.

History definitely rhymes.

My words from 25-years ago could be repurposed today for all things AI. Eventually any new technology needs to demonstrably improve efficiency, reduce costs or increase sales. The common sense of business ROI rarely stops being sexy.

AI is the obvious prediction

The froth around AI makes it the obvious 2026 prediction. But with hype comes expectations and there are starting to be cracks in the narrative.

In the midst of last year’s AI boom narrative, Michael Burry (made famous in The Big Short) bet against Nvidia, Palantir and Oracle. Time will tell if Burry was a one-trick real estate pony, or if he’s early again – this time with AI.

Marc Andreessen gave a more interesting AI view on this A16z podcast. A technology optimist, Andreessen shares a great 30,000 foot view that the cost of intelligence is collapsing faster than Moore’s Law.

Truthfully, AI has had boom and bust cycles since the 1960’s. But he believes we are still very early in the game. And unlike the 1990’s internet which included the need to actually build out the infrastructure, 5+ billion potential users already have access in their pocket.

Andreessen is blown away by new AI abilities, ideas and discussions he has with startups. But, he pays more attention to what people do with AI versus what they say. Workers say they’re worried about AI replacing them, but at the same time, millions are actually using AI for daily tasks.

The democratization for AI is unlike anything before.

I spoke with an old friend last week who is grey-headed top-tier code talent. And he admitted that his code skills have been marginalized by less-experienced coders delivering excellent results from AI. And some AI researchers are making more than professional athletes. Those researchers are folks who only gained their knowledge in the past few years. In the early innings of new trends the barrier to expertise is shorter.

Small models can compete.

It’s not just Fortune 500 companies who are winning with AI. Individuals and small groups are changing dynamics. One of the biggest stories of 2025 was Deepseek. It didn’t come out of a large Chinese government-backed company. It was released by a small independent group as open source.

Last week the story blew up on X about AI bots not predictively trading, but taking advantage of slop. The variance in time on bitcoin prices between polymarket and binance is being used to print winning orders.

BTC drops 0.3% on Binance. The move already happened. But without real-time data, Polymarket still shows old odds. The down outcome sits incorrectly priced by 30 cents. Bot slams the order. Waits. Window closes. Collects. Not a prediction. A receipt for something that already occurred.

This is simply a technology efficiency play and exactly why my last business was blockchain based. Instant, immutable contracts clean up reconciliation for many types of transactions.

All-In Podcast predictions

These guys get a lot of hate, but you can’t argue with their success. Self-made billionaires volunteering their time, bickering about big picture trends, politics and technology have been right many more times than the average investor.

They review their 2025 business predictions (pretty good track record) and give their opinions for 2026.

• Friedberg thinks Huawei and Polymarket will be a big business winners this year.

• Chamath is betting on copper - still needed for much of the technology we use daily.

• Sacks thinks 2026 will be a huge year for IPO’s - perhaps the biggest in US history.

• Jason is betting on Amazon - because of AWS, increased warehouse robots and same day delivery.

Interesting insights from a very plugged-in group.

The Takeaway

2026 will be as good or bad as other entrepreneurial years. Your product or service needs differentiation and a market. The technology discussed above is important but probably not the main thing. When you’re running your own business you figure out which things really matter. It’s likely not geopolitics, but energy costs and affordable rent. Access to capital and a strong labor pool matter.

There are an awful lot of econometrics adding up to 2026 being a solid year.

The jobs market is not great. So if you have a good job it’s might be better to add AI to it instead of jumping for greener pastures. Start the side hustle.

Growth could be very good. Key interest rate cuts and the ongoing data center boom, coupled with a shrinking trade deficit and increased onshoring, could all converge to boost U.S. GDP growth to 5% – and perhaps even higher.

Earnings are expected to continue to accelerate. Inflation is manageable. Government waste and fraud are being removed. Regulatory restrictions are being cut. Energy costs continue to decline. Tax returns will put more money in almost everyone’s pocket because of the OBBB.

Stir in the 250th 🇺🇸 birthday bash, the World Cup on US soil plus a mid-cycle election year.

The end result? 2026 might just be the perfect time to start that thing you’ve been thinking about.

Now go launch something 🚀 

Old School Wisdom

Are you a business owner or leader who needs a 2026 jumpstart? BGW hosts the Best Year Ever workshop Wednesday January 14. In-person (Charlotte) or Zoom.

Join for a rare morning to slow down, think clearly, and get intentional about what you want in 2026. No noise, no busywork — just space to clarify your direction.

Seats are almost all filled. Signup below:

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Start flowing free

Modern Tools

Do you finally think its time to learn the possibilities of AI? Coursiv has beginner-friendly classes that anyone can understand. No technology background necessary.

Know more than your co-workers in weeks.

Free Knowledge

I tend to agree with David Friedberg that Polymarket is worth watching. From trending news to sports, crypto, earnings, tech, politics, culture, elections and more. I’m not a degenerate gambler, but Polymarket has insight on trends worth betting on.

Recommendations

📕 MGMT Playbook : Practical management insights straight to your inbox every Wednesday.

💼 Thriving Freelance - Gigs and Growth : Hundreds of job opportunities sent directly to your inbox each week, plus timely resources to support you as you grow and evolve.

🗃️ Dealroom Business Success Uncovered : Learn directly from billionaire entrepreneurs on how to grow a business. Join a community of 2,000+ innovators.

Visual Crapshoot